Drillers at the Supermajor Inflection: H&P, PTEN, and Nabors Ahead of XOM/CVX Thursday

HP | NYSE | PTEN | NASDAQ | NBR | NYSE | Source data: Q1 2026 earnings releases, SEC 8-K filings, company investor presentations

The three major U.S. contract drillers reported their first quarters before XOM and CVX walk to the podium Thursday morning. What the numbers say isn't complicated: rig counts are rising, pricing is still compressed, and every CEO is making the same bet — that $96–$100 WTI forces operators to drill through the second half of 2026. Thursday's earnings calls will either validate that bet or start undermining it.

Patterson-UTI: Customers Budgeted for $60 Oil, Operating in $100 Oil

Patterson-UTI's Q1 2026 results landed April 22. Total revenue of $1.117 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $205 million, net loss of $25 million — the loss driven by $218 million in depreciation, not operational dysfunction. The U.S. rig count averaged 92 for the quarter.

CEO Andy Hendricks said the quiet part out loud: "Customers operating under budgets that were built around much lower oil price assumptions than what we see today." That's the whole story right there. E&P capex programs were locked in at year-end 2025 when WTI was sitting near $70. By the time Q1 ended, crude was pushing $94–$99. Operators haven't repriced their activity plans yet — but PTEN's management is betting they will.

Q2 guidance calls for an average of approximately 90 rigs, with rig reactivations scheduled for late in the quarter. PTEN expects to exit Q2 near its highest U.S. activity level of the year. Completion Services guidance is $105 million adjusted gross profit for Q2, up from $98 million in Q1 — pricing conversations with customers "to more appropriately reflect an increasing demand environment" underway. Pricing was "relatively steady" in Drilling Services Q1, a phrase that means it didn't fall further rather than that it improved.

Per Patterson-UTI's Q1 2026 8-K filed April 22:

Revenue: $1.117B Q1 2026 | $1.151B Q4 2025 | $1.281B Q1 2025
Adj. EBITDA: $205M | $209M Q4 | $252M Q1 2025
US rigs (avg): 92 Q1 | ~90 Q2 guidance

Nabors: Lower 48 Turning, International Absorbing the Headwinds

Nabors reported Q1 2026 on April 28. Operating revenues of $784 million, adjusted EBITDA of $205 million — the same absolute EBITDA number as PTEN but on a very different business mix. Nabors is primarily an international driller with a growing Lower 48 presence.

Lower 48 average rig count was 65.3 in Q1, up from 59.8 in Q4. Nabors says it currently has 66 active rigs, up eight since November 2025. Q2 guidance: 67–68 Lower 48 rigs, with a daily adjusted gross margin of approximately $13,300. That margin figure is the one to track — it represents the day-rate-less-direct-cost story. It's not expanding materially, but it's holding.

The international story is more complicated. Saudi Arabia's SANAD JV is deploying newbuilds — 15 total, four more scheduled for 2026 — but the Middle East conflict drove higher personnel and logistics costs in Q1, compressing International margins to $16,880/day from $17,400+ guidance. Q2 international guidance bumps back up to $17,400–$17,500/day, suggesting the Q1 headwinds were transitional.

CIR Analysis: Nabors is the primary read-through for XOM and CVX's international drilling posture. If either major cites Middle East operational complexity on Thursday's calls, Nabors' guidance bears watching. The +8 Lower 48 rigs since November is the most visible sign that domestic operators are putting iron in the ground at $96 WTI — even if slowly.

Per Nabors Q1 2026 press release (SEC 8-K filed April 28):

Revenue: $784M Q1 2026 | $798M Q4 2025 | $736M Q1 2025
Adj. EBITDA: $205M | $222M Q4 | $206M Q1 2025
Lower 48 avg rigs: 65.3 | current 66 | Q2 guidance 67–68
Lower 48 day rate margin: Q2 guidance ~$13,300

Helmerich & Payne: Margin Leader, Still Waiting for Activity to Accelerate

H&P reported Q1 of its fiscal year 2026 (October–December 2025 calendar quarter) on February 4, and its Q2 FY2026 (January–March 2026) hasn't reported yet as of April 29. But Q1 FY2026 established the baseline: 143 rigs working in North America, direct margin per day of $18,193 — the highest in the peer group by a meaningful margin, driven by super-spec FlexRig premium pricing and technology adoption on almost every active rig.

Q2 FY2026 guidance from the February release projected 132–138 contracted rigs and direct margin between $205 million and $230 million. That's a sequential rig count step-down from 143 — consistent with the industry-wide first-quarter softness — but the margin guidance range ($205–$230M) implies continued per-day performance above $18,000.

H&P's stock sits at $40.73. Its Q2 FY2026 results should be reported before or around XOM/CVX earnings. CIR Analysis: H&P's super-spec positioning is the most defensible in the group, but even that hasn't translated into stock outperformance at current rig count levels. If XOM or CVX Thursday signals Permian Delaware Basin rig additions for Q2/Q3, H&P is the primary beneficiary given its Texas and New Mexico super-spec market share.

What Thursday Actually Tells the Drillers

XOM and CVX are the two largest Permian operators following the Pioneer and Hess acquisitions. Combined, they drill more Delaware and Midland Basin wells than any other two operators. Their Q1 guidance calls — specifically Q2 rig count guidance and any reference to activity acceleration in response to $96+ WTI — are the most direct signal the drilling contractors can get about the second half of 2026.

PTEN has positioned itself to respond quickly: management said rig reactivations are "activating later in the second quarter," with additional reactivations expected in H2 2026. That language implies contracts are already being negotiated. If XOM or CVX expresses hawkish Q2/Q3 activity guidance on Thursday, PTEN's reactivation commentary will look prescient. If the majors guide conservatively — citing macro uncertainty, buyback prioritization at $100 Brent — the drilling contractors face another quarter of waiting.

Nabors and H&P face the same binary, but with different leverage. Nabors' Lower 48 rig additions came without a single supermajor catalyst; the growth was independent operators responding to $90+ WTI. If the supermajors add incremental activity, Nabors gains share on top of an already-expanding base. H&P has more concentrated exposure to the largest operators given its super-spec positioning, making the Thursday commentary more directly material to their Q3 FY2026 outlook.

What To Watch

• XOM Q2 rig count guidance for the Permian: Any reference to maintaining or increasing Delaware Basin rig count is the most direct demand signal for HP and PTEN
• CVX Hess integration: Guyana offshore rig count and any mention of international drilling acceleration is Nabors' read-through
• Day rate language: PTEN said pricing conversations "to more appropriately reflect increasing demand" are underway — XOM/CVX comments on service cost inflation expectations in Q2 would confirm or deny pricing power recovery
• H&P Q2 FY2026 earnings: Expected within weeks; will reveal whether the 143-rig Q1 FY2026 baseline held or declined further in the January–March period
• Nabors Lower 48 exit rate: Q2 guidance of 67–68 rigs implies modest sequential growth; anything above 70 by mid-Q2 would be a bullish surprise

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This article contains forward-looking statements and analytical opinions. Actual results may differ materially.