Hormuz Premium Gone, Eni-Mercuria Eyes LNG Trade, RBL Math Tightens at $67
Hormuz exports recover, WTI opens at $67.66, and the geopolitical premium that ran crude to $110 in April is effectively gone. The RBL reset clock is now ticking at sub-$68.
morning-brief
Q3 Opens Below $69: The RBL Reset Season Has Started
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 — WTI opened Q3 below $69, slipping to $68.69 as OPEC+ output additions moved from commitment to barrel. That $2-plus gap from Q2's June 30 close of $71 isn't noise — it's Q3's first data point, and it
Q2 Closes at $71: WTI's Quarter-End Print and the Gas Divergence That Isn't Going Away
WTI closes Q2 at $70.95 as OPEC+ supply math resets operator price decks. Henry Hub diverges higher at $3.22. Tuesday Technology beat: EQT and EXE's AI data center positioning.
WTI at $70 and the LNG Bet: Monday's Weekly Setup
WTI opened Monday at $69.92 — a dollar bounce off last week's $68.88 close, but the context hasn't changed. Sub-$70 crude is now the new base case, and the market's first real test of operator resolve arrives this week through Q2 guidance
Week Closes Below $70: WTI's New Floor Test and Devon's Balance Sheet Move
WTI broke below $70 at this morning's open. Devon completed its Coterra note exchange. Baker Hughes rig count due at 1pm CT. The week's setup for US upstream.
Iraq Threatens OPEC Exit as WTI Breaks $70: Thursday's Supply Math Just Changed
WTI broke below $70 overnight as Iraq threatened to quit OPEC over production quotas, Qatar restored LNG output, and the floor debate that defined June gets answered.
WTI Breaks $72 as China's Teapot Refineries Signal Demand Collapse: Wednesday's Capital Markets Setup
WTI crude fell through $72 this morning for the first time in the current downcycle, settling at $71.99/bbl as China's refinery demand erosion collided with a market already pricing in Hormuz normalization. Henry Hub held firm at $3.215/MMBtu — up 0.97% — extending the oil-