One Year In: What CIR Got Right — And What We Missed
A year ago, CIR launched with a simple thesis: the U.S. upstream sector was entering a new phase — one defined not by production growth at any cost, but by capital discipline, consolidation, and the slow monetization of America's gas resource base. Twelve months later, it's worth an honest accounting of what we got right, what we missed, and what the data actually showed versus what we forecast.
Where We Got It Right
The Haynesville-LNG connection. In our March 2025 launch issue, we argued that Haynesville was structurally undervalued relative to Appalachian peers — not because of near-term price dynamics, but because of its geographic proximity to Gulf Coast LNG terminals. That thesis played out. By Q3 2025, Haynesville was running 55 rigs, operators were signing long-term LNG offtake commitments, and the basin was absorbing capital that a year earlier had been chasing Marcellus decline-curve upside. The LNG pull was real, and it arrived on schedule.
The consolidation wave. We called the 2024-2025 M&A cycle the opening act of a multi-year consolidation sequence, not the finale. That held. Diamondback's digestion of Endeavor created a new Permian scale tier. The Devon-Coterra deal was announced in Q4 2025. Smaller Appalachian operators continued to rationalize. The driver we identified — mature inventory requiring larger balance sheets to develop efficiently — remains intact heading into 2026.
Capital discipline holding. When WTI averaged $68/bbl in mid-2025, skeptics predicted a capex blowout. It didn't happen. Public operators maintained their stated frameworks, buybacks continued, and the E&P sector collectively proved it had internalized the lessons of 2014-2016. FCF yield remained the primary investor metric throughout the year.
Where We Missed
Natural gas price timing. We expected a Henry Hub recovery to $3.50-$4.00 by Q3 2025. The market had other ideas. Persistently warm fall weather and surging Appalachian production kept prices suppressed through most of 2025. The real spike didn't arrive until January 2026, when Henry Hub hit $7.72/MMBtu on a prolonged cold snap — and then pulled back sharply to $3.62 in February as storage concerns eased. Our structural thesis was correct; our timing was off by roughly two quarters.
Rig count trajectory. We underestimated the durability of the low-rig environment. At 543 total rigs as of late March 2026, the U.S. count sits below where most models suggested the market would need to go to offset decline rates. The efficiency gains from better lateral lengths, zipper fracs, and pad drilling have been more durable than consensus expected. Fewer rigs doesn't mean less oil.
North Dakota upside. We were cautious on Bakken revival. At roughly 30 rigs today and production around 1.1 MMbbl/d, the basin hasn't delivered the resurgence some anticipated from improving well economics. Infrastructure constraints and the dominance of larger operators squeezing margin from existing inventory have kept a lid on growth. We were right to be skeptical.
The Data Versus the Forecast
EIA numbers for January 2026 show U.S. crude production at 13,246 Mbbl/d — roughly in line with our 13.0-13.5 MMbbl/d range, though the path to get there was choppier than projected. Texas at 5,570 Mbbl/d came in slightly below our 5.8 range, reflecting the January seasonal dip and the efficiency-versus-growth tension we've documented throughout the year.
The bigger picture: we correctly identified the directional vectors — consolidation, LNG demand pull, capital discipline — but underestimated the market's tolerance for volatility in the implementation. The sector spent 2025 proving it could absorb price uncertainty without reverting to growth-at-any-cost behavior. That's a structural achievement worth noting.
Setting Up April
As we enter the second year of publication, CIR is sharpening its focus. The consolidation wave has peaked for now — the deals are done, integration is underway. The next analytical layer is execution: which operators are actually delivering on the promises made in merger decks, and which are quietly slipping on capital efficiency as combined entities prove harder to manage than expected.
On gas, the January spike was a reminder that the structural demand picture — LNG exports running near capacity, heating demand volatility, storage at modest surpluses — can flip the market fast. The February pullback to $3.62 is a reminder that one cold month doesn't cure the oversupply overhang. The second year of CIR will track this story to its resolution.
Thanks for reading. The analysis gets sharper from here.
Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.
