CIR Morning Brief — Thursday, April 23, 2026

WTI: $93.56 | Brent: $97.01 | Henry Hub: $2.87/MMBtu
Prices as of Thursday morning, April 23, 2026 (Yahoo Finance / CME futures)

Crude oil posted another recovery day Wednesday, with WTI climbing back to $93.56 — up roughly $7.65 from last Friday's $85.91 close as the Iran ceasefire narrative has fractured again and buyers have returned. The WTI-Brent spread is narrowing, with the two benchmarks now separated by only $3.45, suggesting the Atlantic Basin supply disruption premium is stabilizing. According to EIA spot price data, WTI has now traded in the $85–$96 range for three consecutive weeks, reflecting the market's genuine uncertainty about whether the Hormuz situation resolves or escalates from here. SLB (NYSE: SLB) closed Wednesday at $54.35, up 2.99%, as services sector earnings optimism builds ahead of Q1 reporting.

SLB Q1 2026 — What to Expect: SLB's March 11 press release warned investors that Q1 revenue would be "lower than expected" and the company would "incur additional costs" from the Middle East conflict — a direct hit to SLB's Middle East/Asia segment, which has historically been one of its highest-margin revenue streams. That pre-announcement set a low bar. SLB's stock up 3% this week suggests the market is pricing in a better-than-feared actual result. CIR will be tracking three metrics when SLB reports: (1) Middle East segment margin versus Q4 2025, (2) North America completions revenue — whether the recovery Halliburton signaled in its Q1 print is confirmed, and (3) digital/AI revenue as a percentage of total — SLB has been aggressively marketing its AI-for-energy platform and Q1 is when the first hard data arrives.

Geopolitical Focus — Thursday Rotation: The Atlantic Basin supply picture is more complex than the Iran headline suggests. Three threads worth tracking: First, Guyana's Stabroek Block continues ramping toward 900,000 bbl/d under ExxonMobil's operatorship — a non-OPEC, non-Hormuz supply stream that provides genuine geopolitical diversification for Asian buyers. Second, Canada's Trans Mountain Expansion is loading near 890,000 bbl/d capacity at Westridge Marine Terminal, providing Alberta heavy crude direct access to Asia-Pacific refiners that previously depended on Middle Eastern sour grades. Third, Venezuela — Chevron's 250,000 bbl/d import program into U.S. Gulf Coast refineries represents a quiet but real strategic hedge, though its regulatory durability remains uncertain under evolving U.S. energy policy. The structural takeaway: the global supply base is more diversified than the Hormuz narrative implies, which is part of why WTI hasn't sustained above $100 despite repeated escalation signals.

Completions Services — Thursday Service Beat: KLX Energy Services (KLXE) and Forum Energy Technologies (FET) have not filed recent 8-Ks as of this morning. The coiled tubing and wireline markets are operating in a holding pattern — Permian completion activity is stable but not accelerating, and service pricing is firm without being aggressive. The more interesting signal is in the wireline segment: as operators optimize existing wellbores rather than drill new ones at current strip prices, wireline and coiled tubing see disproportionate demand relative to rig-dependent services. This bifurcation in the services market — optimization-led demand versus new-drill-led demand — is the defining theme of the current cycle.

CIR Analysis: SLB Q1 2026 Pre-Earnings Deep Dive — Middle East impact, North America recovery, and the digital wildcard — now live for paid subscribers.

Disclaimer: This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data sourced from SEC EDGAR, SLB investor relations, EIA, Yahoo Finance, and CME Futures. All prices are indicative. CIR Research Desk.