New Year, New Budgets: 2026 Capex Plans Finalized

The first week of January is when the real work begins. Holiday budgets are over; the spreadsheets are locked. Across the upstream sector, operators have finalized 2026 capital programs and the picture is coming into focus: disciplined growth, modest spending increases from 2025 levels, and a continued emphasis on returns over volume.

The Big Picture

Total U.S. upstream capex for 2026 is shaping up around $85–90 billion across the public independents and majors — roughly flat to up 3–5% from 2025 actuals. That's not a boom cycle number. But with WTI averaging near $70 in Q4 2025, operators don't need to run hard to generate meaningful free cash flow. The emphasis from management teams is familiar: maintain production, fund the dividend and buyback, keep the balance sheet clean.

ExxonMobil

XOM guided to $28–33 billion in total upstream/downstream capex for 2026, with Permian Basin spending anchoring the plan. Following the Pioneer Natural Resources close in mid-2024, ExxonMobil now controls roughly 1.4 million net acres in the Midland and Delaware Basins. The combined entity is targeting 1.5 MMbbl/d of Permian net production by 2030 — and 2026 is an execution year. Expect 35–40 operated rigs running through year-end.

ConocoPhillips

COP closed the Marathon Oil acquisition in late 2024, adding ~700,000 net Permian acres to its existing Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin positions. Total 2026 capex guidance sits at $12.9 billion. ConocoPhillips is targeting production of 2.34 MMboe/d for 2026, a material step-up from 2025 run rates that reflect the full-year contribution of Marathon assets. Management has been explicit: capital efficiency — not growth for growth's sake — drives allocation.

Devon Energy

Devon guided 2026 capex at $3.3–3.6 billion, maintaining a Delaware Basin-weighted program. With WTI in the $65–75 range, Devon's framework generates substantial FCF above $60 breakeven. The company has signaled roughly flat production year-over-year: ~680,000–710,000 Boe/d. Rigs: expect 10–12 in the Delaware, supported by two frac crews.

Diamondback Energy

FANG continues to integrate its Endeavor acquisition (closed Q3 2024, ~$26 billion). The combined platform now covers ~838,000 net Permian acres. 2026 capex guidance is $3.8–4.1 billion, with about 12 operated drilling rigs and 3 completion crews. Production target: 475,000–490,000 Boe/d. Diamondback has been vocal about cost discipline — D&C costs per lateral foot have continued to decline as the Endeavor integration matures.

EOG Resources

EOG remains one of the sector's most diversified operators, with material positions in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and its emerging Utica and Dorado gas plays. 2026 capex guidance: $6.0–6.4 billion. EOG doesn't run with a fixed rig count target — it maintains a premium drilling inventory philosophy, only sanctioning wells that clear a 30%+ after-tax rate of return at $40 oil. Expect ~500,000–510,000 Boe/d in 2026.

Coterra Energy

Coterra's 2026 capital program is guided at $2.1–2.4 billion, split roughly 55% Permian / 45% Marcellus and other gas. With natural gas prices recovering into 2026 and Appalachian prices firming on LNG demand pull, Coterra's gas weighting is an asset again. The company is targeting 640–680 MBoe/d, skewed toward gas. A natural gas recovery is the swing factor for Coterra's 2026 shareholder returns story.

Chord Energy

Chord (the Oasis/Whiting merger entity) runs the Bakken. 2026 guidance: $1.15–1.25 billion capex, targeting 280,000–295,000 Boe/d. The Bakken is a mature basin — incremental efficiency gains matter more than new acreage. Chord has been running 4–5 operated rigs, and that's unlikely to change materially. FCF generation and returning cash to shareholders is the value proposition here.

What It Means for Activity

The aggregate capex picture implies U.S. rig count holding in the 590–620 range through H1 2026 — up modestly from the 570–580 level seen in late 2025. Completion activity should be stable to slightly higher. Production growth will be modest: EIA projects total Lower-48 liquids to reach ~13.8–14.0 MMbbl/d by year-end 2026, with the Permian driving the bulk of incremental growth.

For service companies, a flat-to-modest activity environment means pricing discipline remains essential. For investors, the message from operators is consistent: we're not going to overspend at $70 oil. The bar for incremental capex is high, and that's precisely what the market has been asking for since 2022.

Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.