Q2 2025 Earnings Preview

Q2 2025 earnings season kicks off in mid-July, and the setup is more interesting than the headline WTI average suggests. Yes, WTI averaged roughly $68–70/bbl in Q2 — a reasonable environment. But the cost structure dynamics, natural gas price headwinds, and ongoing OPEC+ noise make this a more nuanced read than a simple price-times-volume exercise.

Here's what to watch company by company.

ExxonMobil (XOM) — July 25

The central question for Exxon is Permian volume guidance. Q1 came in at 1.2 million boe/d; management guided toward 1.3 million by year-end. Any upward revision to that trajectory — or evidence of accelerating Pioneer synergies — will be the market catalyst. Downstream and chemicals are expected to be a drag given refining margin compression, but that's been well-telegraphed. Watch the free cash flow number and capital allocation commentary.

Street estimate: ~$1.75 EPS, ~$9B operating cash flow

Chevron (CVX) — July 25

Chevron's story remains complicated by the Hess/Guyana situation. Operationally, the Permian is growing modestly, and the company's international portfolio is cash-generative. The Hess arbitration outcome — determining whether CNOOC has a right of first refusal on Guyana assets — is hanging over the stock. Management will likely deflect, but analysts will probe. Buyback pace is the key metric; any slowdown signals balance sheet caution.

Street estimate: ~$2.15 EPS, ~$7.5B operating cash flow

ConocoPhillips (COP) — August 1

COP entered 2025 with a conservative budget and strong balance sheet. The Marathon Oil acquisition (closed mid-2024) added Eagle Ford and Bakken scale; integration commentary will be closely watched. Conoco's multi-basin U.S. position — Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Montney in Canada — provides diversification that smaller E&Ps can't match. Look for any update on the Willow project in Alaska, which should be in early development phases.

Street estimate: ~$1.45 EPS, ~$5.2B operating cash flow

EOG Resources (EOG) — August 5

EOG is one of the most closely watched independents for a simple reason: management tells you exactly what they think. The company has a long history of maintaining discipline and only growing when returns justify it. In Q2, look for: (1) Utica oil window update — EOG has been developing a highly confidential position they revealed in late 2024; (2) Dorado natural gas play in South Texas — timing of further development; (3) any capex guidance revision given gas price performance.

Street estimate: ~$2.80 EPS, ~$2.0B operating cash flow

Diamondback Energy (FANG) — August 4

The Endeavor integration is the story. Management guided to $550M in annual synergies; any commentary exceeding that number will be positively received. Diamondback's Q2 Permian production should show continued growth from the expanded footprint. The company has been one of the most aggressive share repurchasers in the sector — continuation of that pace signals confidence in the balance sheet trajectory.

Street estimate: ~$3.90 EPS, ~$1.6B operating cash flow

Devon Energy (DVN) — August 6

Devon needs a clean quarter after a disappointing Q1. Eagle Ford execution is the key watch item — if the company shows improved well results and completion timing normalization, the discount to peers could close. Devon also has Williston Basin and Delaware Basin exposure; Williston has been a quiet performer. Any discussion of portfolio rationalization — specifically around the Eagle Ford position — would be significant.

Street estimate: ~$1.05 EPS, ~$1.1B operating cash flow

Coterra Energy (CTRA) — July 30

Coterra's dual exposure to Permian oil and Marcellus gas makes it a unique read on both commodity markets. With gas prices depressed, the Marcellus allocation decisions will be closely watched — any commentary suggesting further gas curtailments or activity reductions would signal management's view on H2 gas pricing. Permian performance has been steady; that's the cash flow anchor.

Street estimate: ~$0.55 EPS, ~$950M operating cash flow

The Thematic Read

Beyond individual companies, Q2 earnings will set the tone for three sector-level debates: (1) Can the sector maintain capital discipline with WTI in the $65–75 range, or will some operators blink and chase production? (2) What's the real trajectory for Permian growth — is the 2025 deceleration structural or temporary? (3) When does the natural gas market tighten enough to bring Haynesville and Marcellus activity back? The answers to those questions will frame the second half of 2025.

Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.