New Year Preview: What's on the Calendar for Q1 2026
The calendar flips in three days. Before it does, here is what you need to have on your radar for Q1 2026 — the key dates, the events that will move the needle, and the questions we will be tracking in the first weeks of the new year.
January: Budgets Finalize, Rig Count Resets
Early January brings the annual flurry of operator budget finalization. Most major E&Ps have already released preliminary 2026 capital guidance — we covered that in last week's budget wrap — but the first weeks of the new year produce the official annual guidance releases alongside Q4 2025 earnings previews. Watch for any operators who revise their preliminary numbers; upward revisions signal confidence in the commodity outlook, downward revisions signal caution or balance sheet constraints.
The Baker Hughes weekly rig count release on January 10th will be the first real data point of 2026. January rig counts tend to be seasonally low as operators come back from holiday shutdowns, so the absolute number is less important than the directional signal relative to year-ago. A count above 590 active land rigs entering January suggests the activity plateau is holding; below 570 raises early questions about the year's trajectory.
NAPE Summit — the North American Prospect Expo — runs January 27–30 in Houston. The largest A&D-focused conference in the industry, NAPE typically produces meaningful deal announcements and provides the first reading on how the land and deals market feels heading into the year. We will be covering NAPE closely in the February issue.
February: Earnings Season Begins
Q4 2025 earnings season kicks off in earnest in mid-February. The reporting sequence follows its usual pattern: the supermajors report first (ExxonMobil, Chevron in the first week of February), followed by large-cap independents (ConocoPhillips, Devon, Diamondback, Coterra, EOG in the second and third weeks), with mid-caps rounding out the schedule in late February and early March.
The key questions entering earnings season: How did Q4 2025 actuals compare to production guidance? What are operators saying about 2026 activity plans given current commodity prices? Are there any signs of budget revision — up or down — from the preliminary guidance issued in November/December? And perhaps most importantly: what is the free cash flow outlook at strip pricing, and how are operators planning to return it?
For natural gas producers specifically, Q4 earnings will be the first real test of whether the late-2025 price recovery translated into meaningful cash flow improvement. EQT, Range Resources, and Expand Energy will all report in mid-to-late February. Their commentary on curtailment policy, hedging, and 2026 volume guidance will set the tone for the natural gas equity complex.
February: NAPE and the A&D Market
Beyond earnings, February brings what is typically the most active month for deal announcements. The combination of fresh annual budgets, NAPE-driven deal activity, and operator strategic clarity produces a concentration of A&D transactions in January–March. Watch for Permian bolt-ons, Haynesville/Appalachian package sales from private operators, and any larger strategic combinations that may have been in process through year-end.
March: Spring Maintenance and Storage Transition
March marks the transition from winter withdrawal to shoulder season for natural gas storage. How full storage is exiting winter will determine the narrative for the spring and summer fill season. Our current view: entering spring 2026 near or slightly below the five-year average storage level, which is supportive for gas prices through Q2. If winter 2025–2026 is colder-than-normal, storage could exit February lean, tightening the early 2026 gas market meaningfully.
For oil, March typically brings the beginning of spring driving season demand improvements in the U.S. and refinery turnaround completions that increase crude runs. The OPEC+ meeting in February or March will also be a critical event — any signal of a 2026 production unwind will move WTI markets more than any other single event in Q1.
Wildcards to Watch
Several factors could materially alter the Q1 2026 narrative relative to our base case. A sharper-than-expected winter cold in January–February draws storage aggressively and pushes Henry Hub above $4.00. Any OPEC+ compliance breakdown — triggered by fiscal pressure in Russia, Iraq, or Venezuela — would add barrels to an already-comfortable crude market. Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East or emerging market demand surprises in either direction could create sudden moves in the commodity stack.
CIR will be tracking all of it. The January issue drops the second week of January with our first rig count read of 2026, the NAPE preview, and early commentary on what operators are saying about Q1 activity.
From everyone at CIR — have a safe and productive New Year. We'll see you in 2026.
Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.
