Henry Hub Price Recovery: Is This Time Different?

The natural gas market has a credibility problem. Twice in the past two years—in early 2023 and again in early 2024—prices rallied toward or above $3.00/MMBtu only to collapse back into the $2.00-2.50 range. Both times, analysts and producers argued the market was structurally tightening. Both times, the market disagreed.

So when Henry Hub trades above $2.80-3.00/MMBtu in November 2025, the reasonable question is: is this time actually different, or are we running the same playbook with the same ending?

The honest answer is that the structural case is meaningfully stronger this time. Not bulletproof—natural gas markets are notoriously volatile and weather-dependent—but the supply-demand fundamentals entering winter 2025-26 are different from the two prior false starts in ways that matter.

What Killed the Previous Rallies

The 2022-23 rally that pushed Henry Hub briefly above $9/MMBtu (a multi-decade high) was largely a weather and LNG export story running into a wall of domestic production. When winter 2022-23 turned out warmer than expected—particularly in January and February 2023, when heating degree days ran 15-20% below the 30-year average across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest—storage withdrawals were modest and the market corrected violently. By April 2023, Henry Hub had given back most of its gains.

The 2024 rally fizzled for a different reason: production resiliency. Despite prices collapsing toward $1.50-2.00/MMBtu in early 2024, associated gas from Permian oil production continued to grow. Every barrel of Permian crude brings with it roughly 2,000-2,500 Mcf of natural gas per million BOE of production, and with Permian oil output growing 400,000-500,000 bbl/d per year, the associated gas supply kept building regardless of gas prices. Appalachian producers like EQT cut activity aggressively, but the Permian wet gas volumes largely offset those declines.

The 2025 Setup Is Different

Three things have changed the calculus for winter 2025-26.

First, LNG export capacity has grown materially. Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Sabine Pass Train 6, and the first two trains of Plaquemines LNG have collectively added roughly 3-4 Bcf/d of incremental demand since 2023. As of Q4 2025, U.S. LNG exports run at approximately 13-14 Bcf/d on a nameplate basis, and international demand—particularly in Europe and Asia following the post-Ukraine energy reset—has kept utilization high. That's a baseline demand pull that didn't exist at the same scale in 2022 or early 2024.

Second, production discipline finally hit the Appalachian basin in a meaningful way. EQT Corporation—the largest natural gas producer in the country—proactively curtailed production earlier in 2025 when spot prices dipped below $2.00/MMBtu. CNX Resources, Range Resources, and Coterra Energy in Appalachia have all held rig counts below prior-cycle levels. Haynesville similarly saw Comstock Resources, Chesapeake (now Expand Energy), and Southwestern reduce activity. The result: dry gas production in the Lower 48 has effectively flatlined at 100-102 Bcf/d since mid-2024, a marked change from the 3-5% annual growth rates of prior years.

Third, storage going into winter 2025-26 is constructive but not the bloated situation of prior years. EIA storage data shows inventories running roughly 3-5% below the 5-year average as of late October 2025—not dire, but not the surplus overhang that pressured prices in the 2023-24 shoulder seasons. A normal winter draws storage to manageable levels; a cold winter creates genuine tightness.

The Weather Wild Card

Anyone who claims certainty about natural gas prices should immediately lose credibility. Winter weather is the dominant variable, and winter weather is not forecastable with precision beyond two weeks.

The NOAA's 90-day outlook as of late October 2025 showed elevated probability of below-normal temperatures across the central and eastern U.S.—the most gas-weighted regions for heating demand. But outlooks are probability distributions, not predictions, and 2022-23 demonstrated that mild weather can erase a structural bull case faster than any analyst expects.

The difference is that in 2025, the structural floor appears higher. With LNG demand providing 13-14 Bcf/d of inelastic demand pull and domestic production growth constrained, a warm winter might push Henry Hub back toward $2.50 rather than the $1.50-2.00 lows of early 2024. The upside in a cold winter—perhaps $4.00-5.00/MMBtu on sustained cold spells—is more meaningful than downside.

Who Benefits

Pure-play Appalachian and Haynesville producers are the most leveraged to a sustained gas price recovery. EQT Corporation, trading at levels that imply roughly $2.25-2.50 long-term gas prices in most NAV models, offers the most torque. A sustained $3.00+ environment would be transformative for EQT's free cash flow generation and return of capital capacity.

Expand Energy (the merged Chesapeake/Southwestern entity) is similarly positioned. As the second-largest gas producer in the country, Expand runs a large Haynesville position that generates strong margins at $3.00+ and mediocre ones at $2.50. The stock pricing reflects the latter; a weather-driven validation of the structural bull case would reprice it.

For oil-weighted operators with significant gas production—Coterra Energy (Marcellus + Permian), Devon Energy (Anadarko + Permian gas)—higher gas prices provide a meaningful cash flow lift without requiring additional capital deployment.

Bottom Line

The natural gas market has burned investors before, and it will again. But the structural setup entering winter 2025-26 is materially different from the prior false starts: more LNG demand, less production growth, tighter storage. If winter cooperates even modestly, prices above $3.00 are defensible through Q1 2026. If winter is cold, we could see $4.00+ for the first time since 2023.

The question isn't whether this time is different. The question is: different enough?

We think the answer is yes—with appropriate weather risk attached.

Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.