A&D Market Mid-Year Review: 2025 Deal Flow Analysis

The acquisition and divestiture (A&D) market entered 2025 facing a question that every banker, private equity manager, and public company CFO was trying to answer: after the consolidation supercycle of 2023–2024, who's left to buy, and at what price?

The 2023–2024 wave was transformational. ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer Natural Resources ($64.5 billion). Chevron acquired Hess ($53 billion). ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Oil ($22.5 billion). Diamondback Energy merged with Endeavor Energy Resources ($26 billion). Occidental Petroleum acquired CrownRock ($12 billion). In roughly 18 months, the U.S. E&P landscape was fundamentally restructured — large-cap majors and super-independents absorbed the best remaining private and public assets, primarily in the Permian Basin.

That concentration of activity naturally raises the question: is the deal market played out?

H1 2025: Volume Down, Quality Mixed

First-half 2025 A&D activity was notably quieter than 2023–2024 on a headline dollar basis, but not dormant. The market shifted from megadeals to bolt-ons and tactical divestitures. Total announced upstream deal value through June 2025 tracked at approximately $35–40 billion — roughly 40% below the comparable prior-year period, but in line with historical norms outside the extraordinary consolidation surge.

The deal flow can be categorized across several themes:

1. Post-Merger Portfolio Rationalization

The large mergers of 2023–2024 created motivated sellers. ExxonMobil, post-Pioneer, indicated plans to divest non-core assets. Chevron's Hess integration included non-Bakken legacy assets that fit poorly with the combined portfolio. ConocoPhillips has been methodically pruning lower-return assets following its Marathon acquisition.

These divestitures have been the primary source of meaningful A&D deal flow in H1 2025. Assets sold include non-operated working interests, legacy conventional properties in mature basins, and Midcontinent positions that don't fit the acquirer's core operating footprint. Buyers have typically been private equity-backed operators or mid-size independents looking to build scale.

2. Natural Gas Plays Re-Emerge

The anticipated recovery in natural gas pricing — driven by LNG export demand growth — has revived interest in Haynesville and Appalachia positions that were largely shunned during the $2 gas environment of 2023–2024. Several Haynesville packages transacted in H1 2025 at prices that implied $2.75–$3.00/MMBtu long-term assumptions, reflecting the market's growing confidence in structural demand improvement.

Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake) has been an active consolidator in the Haynesville, adding bolt-on acreage adjacent to its core operating area. The company's thesis — that its Haynesville position uniquely benefits from proximity to Gulf Coast LNG terminals — is being confirmed by development results and commercial negotiations.

3. International Upstream Activity

While U.S. deal flow moderated, international A&D activity increased. Gulf of Mexico deepwater assets changed hands in several transactions as operators with different development timelines and financial profiles found willing counterparties. Deepwater economics have improved with reduced development costs and strong oil prices — a combination that has made offshore assets more attractive relative to onshore shale.

Pricing and Valuation Trends

Permian Basin acreage pricing in 2025 has held firm despite concerns about a "hangover" from the mega-merger valuations. Core Delaware Basin acreage — high oil cut, proven formations, good infrastructure access — still transacts at $30,000–$50,000+ per acre for high-quality positions. The merger-driven price discovery of 2024 effectively set a floor; buyers who need core Permian exposure have demonstrated willingness to pay.

Midcontinent (STACK/SCOOP, Anadarko Basin) and Rockies assets trade at significant discounts, reflecting their lower oil content, higher gas exposure, and thinner corporate buyer pools. These assets find homes with private equity groups and regional operators who can run them efficiently at scale.

Natural gas assets have re-priced upward. Haynesville packages that couldn't be sold at $2.00/Mcfe in early 2024 are moving at $3.00–$4.00/Mcfe values in mid-2025. Buyers are modeling $2.75–$3.25/MMBtu long-term, which supports deals that would have been structurally unpriceable a year ago.

Private Equity: The Exit Problem Persists

Private equity firms raised large upstream funds in 2018–2020 that are now approaching or past their typical hold periods. Many of the most desirable assets (core Permian) were sold during the 2023–2024 consolidation wave. What remains in PE portfolios includes assets in secondary basins, non-operated positions, and natural gas properties.

The IPO market for E&P companies remains effectively closed — no major upstream IPO has priced successfully since 2022. PE exits are therefore almost entirely dependent on strategic buyers. With the large-cap majors having recently completed transformational deals, their appetite for new large transactions is limited near-term. Mid-cap public E&Ps — Devon Energy, Coterra, Ovintiv, Civitas Resources — are the most likely buyers for remaining private equity packages in the $1–5 billion range.

Looking Ahead: H2 2025

The second half of 2025 should see continued moderate deal flow driven by:

• Continued portfolio rationalization from mega-merger integrations
• Haynesville consolidation as LNG demand confidence grows
• Mid-size public mergers as companies seek scale benefits without premium prices
• International transactions in deepwater and emerging basins

The megadeal era appears to be on pause — not permanently over. If oil prices dip materially toward $60/bbl, distress could create new deal opportunities. If gas prices recover sustainably above $3.50/MMBtu, Appalachia and Haynesville assets become viable megadeal targets. The market watches, recalibrates, and waits for the next catalyst.

The advisory community — Raymond James, Tudor Pickering Holt, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs — remains engaged with active mandates. The pipeline of potential deals is real. Whether those transactions clear depends on the gap between seller price expectations and buyer return requirements narrowing enough to transact. That gap, right now, is manageable but not trivial.

Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.