A&D Market Update: Q1-Q2 2025 Deal Flow

The A&D market entered 2025 with a hangover from one of the busiest deal years in upstream history. The 2023–2024 M&A supercycle — driven by Permian consolidation, natural gas mega-mergers, and PE-backed exits — reset the corporate landscape. Now, with commodity prices softening, buyers are more selective and sellers are recalibrating expectations. Here's what the deal flow looks like heading into mid-2025.

The 2024 Overhang

To understand Q1-Q2 2025 A&D activity, you need context on what preceded it. The 2023–2024 M&A wave was extraordinary by any measure:

• ExxonMobil / Pioneer Natural Resources: $60 billion (closed May 2024)
• Chevron / Hess: $53 billion (regulatory battles, completed 2025)
• ConocoPhillips / Marathon Oil: $22.5 billion (closed late 2024)
• Diamondback Energy / Endeavor Energy: $26 billion (closed late 2024)
• APA / Callon Petroleum: $4.5 billion (closed mid-2024)
• Chesapeake / Southwestern Energy merger: ~$7.4 billion creating Expand Energy

That's over $170 billion in announced upstream M&A in roughly 18 months. The inevitable consequence: the pool of large, standalone, high-quality acquisition targets has been dramatically reduced. The "obvious" Permian public company consolidation trades are largely done.

Q1 2025: Digestion and Selective Hunting

The first quarter of 2025 was characterized more by corporate digestion than new deal announcements. ExxonMobil spent Q1 integrating Pioneer's operations, working to rationalize overlapping acreage positions and combining drilling programs. Diamondback executed its Endeavor integration, touting >$550 million in identified synergies. ConocoPhillips finalized the Marathon Oil integration and announced plans for $500 million in near-term asset divestitures of non-core properties.

The divestitures from post-merger integrations represent the most active segment of Q1 2025 A&D. When a major integrates a large acquisition, non-core properties get marketed — and that's where smaller operators and private equity find opportunities to buy quality assets at reasonable prices.

Specifically, ConocoPhillips' announced Eagle Ford and Bakken non-core divestitures attracted significant buyer interest from Chord Energy, Permian Resources, and several undisclosed private operators. The assets — mostly lower-working-interest positions or fringe acreage — were marketed at $3,000–$5,000/boe/d of production, a reasonable multiple in the current price environment.

Notable Q1-Q2 2025 Transactions

Permian Resources / Acquired Delaware Basin package (approx. $800 million, Q1 2025): Permian Resources — formed from the Centennial/Colgate merger — continued its Delaware Basin consolidation strategy. The acquisition added ~10,000 boe/d of production and significant undrilled inventory in Reeves County, bolstering the company's position as the leading pure-play Delaware operator.

Chord Energy / Williston Basin bolt-on (~$1.2 billion, Q1 2025): Chord — the combined Oasis/Whiting entity — picked up non-operated Williston Basin interests from a private seller, adding roughly 15,000 boe/d and consolidating its dominant North Dakota position. The deal was priced at approximately $80,000 per flowing boe, in line with recent Bakken transaction comps.

Civitas Resources / DJ Basin package ($550 million, Q2 2025): Civitas continued rationalizing its multi-basin portfolio (it entered the Permian via acquisitions in 2023) by acquiring additional Wattenberg acreage from a private operator. The company has consistently telegraphed a preference for deepening its highest-returning inventory positions rather than geographic diversification.

Upstream natural gas: Quiet but watching. With Henry Hub stuck near $2.00–$2.50/MMBtu through early 2025, natural gas A&D has been largely frozen. Haynesville and Appalachian assets are available — motivated sellers include over-levered private Haynesville operators and legacy APA/Ovintiv positions — but buyers are waiting for a price signal before committing capital. The anticipated LNG demand ramp in 2026–2027 could catalyze a gas-focused M&A wave later this year.

Valuation Metrics in the Current Environment

Deal multiples have compressed modestly from the frothy 2023–2024 peak, reflecting lower commodity price assumptions:

• Permian oil (core, developed): $60,000–$80,000 per flowing boe
• Bakken/Williston (core): $55,000–$75,000 per flowing boe
• Eagle Ford (core oil window): $45,000–$65,000 per flowing boe
• DJ Basin (Wattenberg core): $50,000–$70,000 per flowing boe
• Haynesville (core gas): $2,500–$4,000 per Mcfe/d (gas-equivalenced)

The dispersion within basins is wide: core acreage with long lateral inventory commands significant premiums, while fringe/non-core packages are trading at steep discounts. This bifurcation reflects the market's sophistication about remaining inventory quality.

What to Watch in H2 2025

Several factors could unlock the next wave of A&D activity:

Commodity price recovery. A sustained move above $75 WTI would reset seller price expectations upward and give buyers confidence in acquisition economics. The current $65–$70 range keeps many would-be sellers on the sidelines.

Private equity exits. The PE-backed upstream sector raised heavily in 2018–2021 and is overdue for exits. Fund lives are stretching, and sponsors are under LPA pressure to return capital. If prices move or credit markets tighten, a wave of private-to-public or private-to-private transactions could emerge.

International and offshore. With large onshore U.S. targets depleted, some majors are looking internationally. TotalEnergies and Shell have both signaled interest in Namibia and Brazil deepwater opportunities. That's a different A&D market — longer cycle, higher capital requirements — but relevant for the large-cap universe.

The A&D market in 2025 is a seller's waiting room. Quality assets will trade when sellers get their price. Everything else will sit until the price deck recovers.

Crude Intelligence Report is an independent upstream oil and gas intelligence publication. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. The author and publisher hold no positions in any companies mentioned in this article. © 2026 Crude Intelligence Report. All rights reserved.